By Andrew McGarryUpdated September 22, 2012 10:20:35
On paper, this game is a foregone conclusion, a lay down misere, the story of Adelaide's honourable and impressive season awaiting an inevitable full-stop.
It may be that the only people in Australia who truly believe this not to be the case are coach Brenton Sanderson and his Crows' squad themselves.
The question is this - do the Crows have the manpower, or the gameplan to get past an awesome Hawthorn team?
If they do, then the answer starts with Kurt Tippett.
The 203cm Queenslander has been sadly out of form, and is tipped - no pun intended - to leave the City of Churches to return to Brisbane or the Gold Coast for season 2013.
His motivation, and even his presence in the side has been questioned in Adelaide over the last few weeks but at his best he can be a game-changer - and the Crows need as many of them as they can get this week.
A rejuvenated Tippett would present big problems to Hawthorn's defence, and give Adelaide a dangerous one-two punch up forward with star spearhead Taylor Walker.
Bear in mind, however, the Hawthorn forward line and its embarrassment of riches.
Aside from Lance Franklin, the Hawks have Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, Cyril Rioli, David Hale and a range of other rotating players who can all do great damage to an AFL defence.
Individually they are hard to stop. Collectively, they are a force to be reckoned with, as shown by the fact that Hawthorn scored 250 points more than the next highest team this year - which happens to be Adelaide.
It's not just the Hawks' attacking ability that is so impressive, either.
Hawthorn's mastery of defensive forward pressure is lethal to opposing sides - in particular Breust and Rioli, who have made more than 100 tackles apiece this season, as well as kicking 39 and 21 goals respectively.
The problem for the Crows is that they go into the game without prime spoiler - and Rising Star award winner - Daniel Talia (broken arm) and Sam Shaw (hamstring) putting even greater pressure on their back six.
This also pushes the problem up the ground for Adelaide - without a clear win in the middle, at the clearances, they have no hope of stemming the flood of ball going into their own defensive 50 - and with Hawthorn's attacking options, that is unlikely to end well.
There is some good news on the injury front, with Jared Petrenko making the trip to Melbourne despite dislocating his shoulder in the final seconds of the Dockers' game last week.
His ability to provide similar defensive pressure to Breust and Rioli will be a big boost to Adelaide, if he is right to play.
In contrast, Hawthorn is back to virtual full strength, with the key additions of Jordan Lewis (who can kick the odd bag of five himself) and fellow midfielder Clinton Young.
They also have an excellent midfield, where the spread of talent means the Hawks' fierce on-baller Sam Mitchell somehow still goes without a tag, and a pair who carry and deliver the ball brilliantly from defence in Grant Birchall and Matt Suckling.
This is not to say that the Crows are without players who can make a difference in this game.
Patrick Dangerfield's explosive ability, Rory Sloane's tenacity and timing, Sam Jacobs' top-line taps to advantage and Scott Thompson's ability to control possession are all extremely valuable assets, not to mention Ian Callinan's goal-sneak capabilities and Brent Reilly and Ben Rutten's experience at the back.
The problem is that all these players need to have close to career games for Adelaide to have a chance.
On form, it's Hawthorn as well.
The Hawks finished the minor premiership with a flourish, beating Sydney and West Coast to grab top spot, then demolishing Collingwood in week one of the finals to make it clear that anyone who wanted the 2012 premiership cup would have to go through them.
They haven't had to travel, they have had the week's rest and have brought players back thanks to that advantage. It all just seems to add up.
Putting aside personnel, form levels, the home-town advantage and the week off that the Hawks have benefited from, there is one more reason why Adelaide go into this preliminary final as rank underdogs.
Ever since the Neil Craig-coached Crows blew the advantage of the minor premiership by losing to St Kilda in a home qualifying final in 2005, forcing themselves to play - and lose to - West Coast in a preliminary final at Subiaco Oval, Adelaide has had a miserable record in key games.
In 2006 the Crows were within touching distance of a grand final when they led West Coast at half-time in a home preliminary final at Football Park before losing by 30 points.
The following year Adelaide led by 31 points at half-time against Hawthorn in an elimination final in Melbourne, but a young Lance Franklin booted his seventh goal of the game in the dying seconds to provide another nightmare finish.
This year Adelaide - helped by a much-criticised draw - finished second, giving the team the right to host two home finals and a straight route to the grand final.
Instead, the Crows were outplayed by a team they had clearly had the wood over, the Sydney Swans, on their home turf.
They rebounded well to beat Fremantle at Football Park the following week, but that loss forced them to go on the road and play the hottest team in the AFL to seal the club's first grand final spot in 14 years.
It's true that Hawthorn has its own baggage in this regard, particularly with the team's inability to beat Geelong since the Hawks' 2008 grand final win, not to mention last year's prelim final fadeout against Collingwood.
The weight of evidence, however, leans heavily to Adelaide failing once again in a crunch game.
There's a reason that AFL finals aren't just played on paper.
Just look back at Essendon in 1999, when the minor premiers and unbackable favourites lost by a point to sixth-placed Carlton in a preliminary final to miss out on the last Saturday in September.
On every available reading, however, it is difficult if not impossible to see how the Crows can beat the Hawks, or even get close.
Sadly for Adelaide, in this case the bookies appear to have got it right.
Hawthorn by 50
Tags: sport,
australian-football-league,
australia,
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melbourne-3000 First posted September 22, 2012 10:20:35
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