Raman Goraya with AAPUpdated March 29, 2012 18:12:33
The AFL picture appears to be an uncomplicated one in 2012.
Another expansion team, a host of sides jockeying for position to break into the top eight and three standout contenders with a wide open premiership window in front of them.
But appearances can be deceiving on what is actually a slippery competition slope.
West Coast proved that with its remarkable transformation from wooden spooners to top four finishers in the space of a season, while the Bulldogs went from three consecutive preliminary finals to the void outside the eight.
Adding to the adventure will be the five senior coaches making their debut and the two more taking the reins at a different club.
Heading into the opening weekend, ABC Grandstand runs its eye over all 18 sides. Click your club below:
After a disappointing 14th place finish in 2011, Brenton Sanderson’s reign at the Crows has started promisingly by winning the preseason cup.
The former Geelong assistant has made no secret of his goal to make Adelaide a bigger, stronger, more aggressive outfit during the summer months to counter their crippling failure to win contested ball last season.
Perhaps a by-product of poor stoppage work, the Crows also desperately struggled to build scoreboard pressure in 2011.
But with a forward line featuring Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker and the returning Jason Porplyzia, not to mention talented goal-kicking midfielders like Rory Sloane and Patrick Dangerfield, the tide could turn rapidly.
Defence is a worry with a lack of experience, but a bid to make the finals will be boosted by the fact the Crows face the Giants and Suns twice each - that's a potential 16-point boost on other top eight challengers.
Brisbane won only four games last season but the number coach Michael Voss will choose to focus on is the seven games lost by three goals or less.
The prospect of improvement sits with consistence performances from future captain Jed Adcock, midfielders Daniel Rich and Tom Rockliff and linchpin half-back Josh Drummond, whose injury-riddled career has unfortunately seen him play just 79 games.
The worry lies in a largely inexperienced group that could again be ripped apart if hit by key injuries, especially to fearless captain Jonathan Brown (already out for the first two rounds) and hulking full-back Daniel Merrett.
Voss's tenure is still taunted by a run to the 2009 finals which has now arguably held the club back.
The kids are coming to the fore now, but the pressure will definitely mount on the three-time premiership captain if results are hard to come by.
Carlton has come through what can be described as the textbook rebuilding process and have opened its premiership window.
The Blues now boast a healthy stack of 12 players in the 100-200+ games demographic (in the same region as Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong), which includes high draft picks Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs.
With more than a fair share of A-grade skill and pace, Brett Ratten also has a bevy of hard-working foot soldiers on the rung below willing to put their body on the line – Mitch Robinson being the oft-cited example.
The biggest question facing the Blues is how can they develop to beat the best? They lost all seven games (including a semi-final) against top-four opponents last season.
Doubts caused by a winless preseason will either dissipate or increase after a testing opening five rounds with worrying injuries to defender Michael Jamison and forward target Andrew Walker, amongst others, unlikely to help ease the pressure.
Despite losing last year's decider, Collingwood is at the peak of its powers.
The Pies possess dominance, and arguably more importantly depth, across all lines, making preseason injuries a mild headache and not a full-blown migraine for new coach Nathan Buckley.
The biggest changes have come with the ascension of Buckley to the throne and with him a handful of new assistants.
As a result, Collingwood’s game style is likely to evolve to include the corridor more instead of the stringent boundary line tactics employed by Mick Malthouse.
The Magpies certainly have the ability to make the switch and with near irrepressible force Travis Cloke in the forward 50, the dividends could be paid quickly.
Considering the quality of the chasing pack, the Bombers will have to work as hard as any team to defend their spot in the top eight.
A dream start ended with six wins in their last 14, mainly due to captain Jobe Watson’s hamstring injury and one of the league's worst defences.
The defensive problem is two-fold: Essendon continues to perpetuate the notion it is a 'one-way’ team with poor pressure in the midfield not helping the fact its backline desperately struggles to deal with the resulting, consistent entries.
On the plus side, the Bombers boast some of the most exciting young stars in the game, including all-important key position players in attack (Michael Hurley, Stuart Crameri) and defence (Tayte Pears, Cale Hooker).
James Hird’s challenge is getting the most of out of them on a consistent basis, as well as maligned 100-gamers like Paddy Ryder and Brent Stanton.
Fremantle showed what it had in store in 2010 and sadly watched it all fall away courtesy of an injury-cruelled 2011.
Ultimately it cost Mark Harvey his job and now Ross Lyon, who did well with less at St Kilda, takes on a very promising list.
Lyon's defensive style may be at odds with some of the young, free-running Dockers but it is worth noting Freo boasted the highest tackles per game differential in the AFL last year.
That counted for little without the skill and composure going the other way, but the eventual return of David Mundy and Michael Barlow will help ease those concerns alongside the athletic Nat Fyfe and Stephen Hill.
With depth in the middle circling big man Aaron Sandilands, Matthew Pavlich can target a 70-goal season up forward that will carry much more weight than similar hauls in unsuccessful Fremantle campaigns of the past.
Last season Chris Scott did something many thought unlikely; he won a premiership in his first year as a senior coach.
Now he is preparing to break down another widely-held AFL conception – what goes up must surely come down.
It's hard to argue with the dual-premiership winner, who himself was part of Brisbane’s rapid decline, when the likes of Scarlett, Johnson, Chapman, Corey, Enright and Bartel still seem to be working at peak levels.
Scott's focus on man management will make sure the Cats stars are ready for another finals assault, while those in the 1-50 bracket game – Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel, Mitch Brown, Trent West, Allen Christensen to name a few – have showed tremendous signs they are ready to fill the gaps left by retiring club legends.
With a list so jam-packed with talent, the Suns will fancy their chances to double their three wins from season one.
But progression will be much more than a win-loss record come the end of August.
Coach Guy McKenna made a point of exposing his youngsters to the responsibility of senior footy in 2011 and as a result they wore some big losses on the scoreboard.
But returning bigger bodied and more competitive, Gold Coast will be eyeing more consistent performances and confident players like Andrew Swallow, Trent McKenzie and Harley Bennell will continue to make their mark.
More goals from the likes of Danny Stanley, Charlie Dixon and Brandon Matera will go a long way towards more victories.
Make no mistake, the Giants will face as steeper learning curve as any side in the history of the AFL.
Even with the guidance of Kevin Sheedy and Mark Williams and a sprinkling of mature-age experience, they will be lucky to get within two straight kicks of their opponents, let alone win a game.
What they do bring to the table is a frightening amount of talent, and the chance to watch genuine superstars in the making – all in the same team.
Sheedy has earmarked the likes of Dylan Shiel, Jeremy Cameron and Stephen Coniglio as ones to watch while plenty will wait and see if the power and speed of giant NRL convert Israel Folau can overcome his lack of AFL nous.
Tom Harley, who has been heavily involved in the rise of the Giants, says expect immediate impacts from rookies Will Hoskin-Elliot, Devon Smith, Jacob Townsend and exciting goal sneak Nathan Wilson.
Hawthorn was struck down by injuries in 2011, especially to big men, and still managed to fall just a kick short of the grand final.
After losing just six home and away matches last season, the Hawks should match that return with a list balance comparable to premiership rivals Collingwood and Geelong.
Their strength lies beyond a long list of 100-200 game match-winners and with new-found depth - Liam Shiels, Luke Bruest, Shane Savage and Issac Smith to name a few - which has come along leaps and bounds in a surprisingly quick time.
They’ll finish top four and it will be up to Buddy Franklin and co to provide the edge in the finals.
It is difficult to project the expectations, internal and external, for the Demons in 2011 but new coach Mark Neeld can probably start with that old chestnut of consistency.
Last season Melbourne remarkably boasted a winning average of 49 points but a losing margin of 56, boosted by a horror month of consecutive hammerings by Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and West Coast which included the sacking of Dean Bailey.
The Dees have some stability at the back and up front new tall Mitch Clarke, who will need to fire to contribute the 40 goals Liam Jurrah is likely to leave on the sidelines this year.
But the gaping hole is a lack of any A-grade players many thought the club would have established by now.
That point alone could prove pivotal in fighting for a finals spot, despite what is sure to be an emotionally-driven start to the season after the death of club legend Jim Stynes.
North Melbourne has been let down by its inability to win the 'eight-point’ battles over the past two seasons i.e. matches against those in the rabid pack also eyeing the finals.
New captain David Swallow, aerial master Drew Petrie, ruckman Todd Goldstein and equal best-and-fairest Daniel Wells are the mainstays.
But it is names like Ryan Bastinac, Levi Greenwood, Nathan Grima, Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington that need to lift the average if North is going to emerge from the blanket of clubs on the brink of September.
The Roos have issues rebounding off half-back and an over-reliance on the goal-kicking of forward target Petrie needs to be replaced by a bigger contribution from small forwards like Lindsay Thomas and Matt Campbell.
After a horror 2011, Port Adelaide will be keen to move onwards and upwards, and quickly.
Matthew Primus and the club has swept out some of the dead wood, brought in AFL-ready recruits Brad Ebert and John McCarthy and placed a lot of faith in younger players on the list like Hamish Hartlett, Jackson Trengove and John Butcher.
The Power has X-factors in Danyle Pearce, David Rodan and Robbie Gray but their downfall was a lack of support for inside players Travis Boak and Dominic Cassisi.
Port have built a winning culture on hard edge football in the past, something Primus witnessed first-hand as a player.
The current crop can do worse than emulating former Power sides in an effort to lift their contested possession count from third last in the competition and make a big improvement.
The excitement is palpable at Punt Road after encouraging displays in preseason and the club re-signing coach Damien Hardwick for another two years.
The Tigers traded for Ivan Maric to ease long-standing worries in the ruck and his combination with the towering Tyrone Vickery will be instrumental alongside a handful of gun midfielders.
Jack Riewoldt is a pillar down one end, but question marks remain around the support for Alex Rance down back and the core of players below the top echelon.
While the Tigers can prove electric with the ball thanks to players like Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin, it's off the ball pressure that looks to be key for the Tigers to make the step up.
The Saints and new coach Scott Watters can draw inspiration from West Coast's impressive revival last season.
Like the Eagles, the Saints have plenty of experienced bodies nearing or past 30 that have been part of consecutive grand final sides and still have plenty to offer.
What the likes of Nick Riewoldt, Brendon Goddard, Lenny Hayes and Nick Dal Santo need for the club to avoid bottoming out is a big lift from their 0-50 game players.
Jack Steven, Arryn Sipposs, Tom Ledger and Rhys Stanley are all players with under 30 games that will be expected to contribute like senior footy regulars.
Worryingly, St Kilda's second-level of talent doesn't boast much depth and injuries to toiling veterans could make it tough to maintain a finals spot.
Sydney maintains a unique position in the AFL universe, the limbo between the tearaway top four or five and the rest of the competition.
It makes for regular finals football but the honest battlers of the competition find it hard to bridge the gap to the heavyweights.
The transition from Paul Roos to John Longmire has been seamless in the fact the Swans continue to inject youth and claim useful talent from other clubs, whilst relying on an elite core of veterans to more often than not get them over the line.
Grandstand's newest AFL expert and former Swan Craig Bolton has pinpointed Sydney's forward line as the place for improvement.
The Swans need to avoid saddling the young shoulders of Sam Reid and players like Lewis Jetta, Jesse White, Gary Rohan, Irishman Tommy Walsh and former Tiger Mitch Morton will be called on inside 50 to keep the finals record ticking.
Hats off to John Worsfold and his revitalised veterans for dragging a fast-maturing crop of draftees up the AFL ladder in sensationally quick time.
But with the experienced heads of Dean Cox, Andrew Embley, Darren Glass and Daniel Kerr not getting any younger, the pressure will be on the up-and-comers to make the next step and keep the Eagles firmly entrenched in the top eight.
West Coast's ability to win the ball, get it forward and either score immediately or lock it in the forward half was the hallmark of their 2011 season and that won't change.
Josh Hill from the Bulldogs will be called upon earlier than first thought after the skilful Mark LeCras went down in preseason but Beau Waters returns to bolster an already stingy defence.
Plenty of raw talent, excitement and wins should follow the Eagles in 2012.
The Dogs will be saying they need a top-up of talent, but in effect they are as close to a total rebuild as any of the Victorian clubs.
Barry Hall is gone and whilst showing glimpses of career-best form last season, the likes of Robert Murphy (29), Daniel Giansiracusa (30) and Daniel Cross (29) aren't too far from joining their former team-mate in retirement.
Names such as Gilbee, Hargrave, Lake, Boyd and Morris - who are all 29 or 30 - can be added to that group and whilst they will still be contributing the alarming part is the disparity in quality on the next tier.
Only Ryan Griffen stands out as a genuine A-grader with Adam Cooney and Shaun Higgins being held back by fitness concerns.
That opens the door for a heap of players (Jarrad Grant, Jordan Roughead, Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis) yet to really prove their worth at AFL level.
Of all the new coaches starting this season, Brendan McCartney appears to have the toughest task ahead of him, especially trying to fix the Bulldogs' terrible ball use last season.
Written and compiled by Raman Goraya with AAP
Audio contributors: Dan Lonergan, Clint Wheeldon, Corbin Middlemas, Peter Walsh, Matt Clinch, Shannon Byrne, Patrick Foulkes, Craig Bolton, Tom Harley.
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australia First posted March 23, 2012 17:01:05
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